England will experience worse levels of drought next year if this winter is drier than normal, the Environment Agency has warned.
The environmental regulator has released its Drought Prospects Report, examining the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.
Despite recent rainfall, the drought situation across the country is still precarious following a record dry spring and a continued run of heatwaves and dry weather throughout the summer.
Drought is only over when water levels are fully replenished, and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of ten months so far this year. This means that flooding in drought is possible, including flash floods as dry soils struggle to soak up intense downpours.
The Met Office has forecast heavy rain into Saturday but indicated a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January. This could cause drought conditions to worsen, leading to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment and a risk to crop yields.
The new report analyses three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions ahead of next year’s traditionally drier months. Without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought with widespread impacts felt by consumers, farmers, businesses, and nature.
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue to play their part and use water wisely through winter, in anticipation of another drought year.
Director of Water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham, said: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.
“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.
“The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country. I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter - even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”
Water Minister Emma Hardy said: “I welcome the recent rainfall but the prolonged dry weather throughout this year continues to pose risks to public water supplies, farming, and the environment. We continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain supplies for communities across the country.
“Climate change means we will face more frequent, severe droughts and flooding in the years ahead. That’s why this government is taking decisive action to secure our long-term water resilience, which includes building nine new reservoirs and investing in new pipes to reduce leakage.”
Fran Barnes, Chief Executive of the Horticultural Trades Association (HTA), said: “The Environment Agency’s latest report reinforces the urgent need for the government to prioritise a water resilience strategy. It is completely unacceptable that we are allowing valuable Autumn and Winter rain to, quite literally, pour down the drain at the same time as the Environment Agency warning that large parts of England could face drought again next Spring.
“Environmental Horticulture plays an essential role in tackling climate change, improving biodiversity and reducing flood risk. However, our growers need a secure water supply to ensure we have the trees and plants vital to our green spaces. The sector has already made significant progress in improving water efficiency, using just 0.2% of the UK's total water use, but during a drought, this can have a huge impact on our growing businesses.
“The UK can’t keep going from flooding disasters to drought crisis. The government must urgently prioritise water storage and water resilience to ensure that we capture rainfall now for future use. This will involve national infrastructure projects as well as supporting local storage solutions, such as on-site reservoirs in our members’ businesses.”
